Israel’s Year of Grief & Anxiety
As the anniversary of the Hamas invasion and massacre in Israel draws near it is timely to reflect on where things are at with the nation stricken by grief and anxiety. The upheaval Israel has felt is unlike anything experienced in many years as they continue the fight against enemies on multiple fronts and navigate the diplomatic tightrope with existing allies.
Speaking of Israel’s many enemies the Psalmist writes, “…Let Israel now say, “Many times they have persecuted [Lit. showed hostility] me from my youth up; Yet they have not prevailed against me.” (Ps 129 1b-2)
We can rejoice that Israel prevails despite her enemies constant barrage of rocket, drone and terror attacks. However, the threats continue and like we saw this past week when three Israeli men were killed at the Allenby Checkpoint , some attacks are successful. And while Israel will always prevail according to God’s plan, the conflict remains and suffering persists.
And so long as no peace accord is reached, this conflict will most certainly carry forward into a second year where uncertainty and anxiety will remain.
According to the Institute for National Security Studies Since the war began and as of 8th September over 1600 Israelis have been killed including 706 soldiers. Over 17,800 have been wounded and 143,000 Israelis displaced.
This ongoing uncertainty is seen in three distinct challenges the war with Hamas has produced over the past few months which have created an impasse for the nation into the foreseeable future.
Irreconcilable Differences
On the 7th September marking 11 months since the Hamas attack and following the most recent devastating news of the execution of six more hostages there was a mass outpouring of grief and anger on the streets of Tel Aviv and other cities across Israel. Organisers believe it may have been the largest rally in Israel’s history as hundreds of thousands took aim at the Netanyahu government for not doing enough to secure the release of the hostages. At the time of writing, it is believed that 97 of the 252 hostages taken remain in Gaza including 33 bodies accounted for by the IDF. 105 hostages were released during a brief truce in November last year and there have been 8 rescued alive and 37 bodies recovered during the conflict.
Rising to the surface at this point of the conflict and as the 1 year anniversary approaches are the same core issues seen in Israel before the attack on October 7th 2023. It is the ongoing irreconcilable differences that exist in the hearts and minds of Israelis about how to live with their enemies. On the one hand you have the religious Jews and their fierce passion to progress Judaism and make the whole land a Jewish nation. On the other hand, there is a large but not a majority of irreligious secular Jews wanting appeasement at all costs. They are at odds with the predominantly religious right government in Israel led by Benjamin Netanyahu who some believe is taking advantage of the opportunity for the sake of his political legacy. All this to say, the social and religious divisions are sharp, and finding consensus will ultimately result in concessions and consequently a repeat of the past.
Israel also has to consider relations with the US which could change in November as Americans go to the polls. Under the last Trump presidency we saw unprecedented support for Israel that facilitated peace accords with the UAE and other nations that continue to hold during this current conflict. However, with Kamala Harris things could look very different, possibly in the way it was with Obama where foreign policy in the Middle East became less of a priority. As already seen in the Biden administration, patience with Israel waxes and wanes according to internal political pressures. As it stands the US has pledged financial support to the tune of US$26b that passed the congress in April this year. But as was recently seen in the UK, governments can place limitations on suppliers that export to Israel and ultimately could create full embargoes should they wish.
In many ways the irreconcilable differences have an inverted appearance when comparing Israel and traditional western allied populations. Israel has a religious population that is increasing and as a result there is a social and cultural shift to support a stronger zionistic effort. In the West however, there is a growing anti Israel attitude as populations grow less religious and traditionally held beliefs among Bible believing Christians concerning the future for Israel are abandoned.
In short, the growing division between Israel and her allies based on social and cultural shifts may well lead to irreconcilable differences whereby Israel becomes increasingly isolated and vulnerable.
Unrealised (Uninitiated) Threats
While the eyes of the world were focused on the Paris Olympic Games, Israel’s military remained focused on strategic high value enemy targets. On 31st July while in Tehran (Iran), Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in the guesthouse where he was staying. Around the same time in Beirut (Lebanon), the IAF targeted the Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr believed to be responsible for the missile attack that hit a soccer field in a Druze village in the Golan Heights that killed 12 innocent children.
For Israel to attack a target on Iranian soil was a humiliation for the Iranian regime who immediate vowed a “harsh and painful” response, something the world is still waiting for. As Israel went into preparations for the attack, airlines cancelled flights and airspace was cleared across the Middle East. But as the risk of an attack has lessened airlines are slowly returning and there is an easing of concern something is imminent.
When Iran attacked Israel in April with 300 missiles and drones the result was embarrassing. 99% of the weapons were either shot down or intercepted by defence systems. But it is unlikely that embarrassment would deter Tehran from following through on their threats to avenge the blood of their muslim brothers despite Haniyeh being from a different arm of Islam (Suni).
So why no attack from Iran?
I think we can safely say it wasn’t because they were too busy watching the Olympics, but rather that the risks outweighed the rewards. There are also several other reasons cited by many geopolitical commentators as to why this attack has to date not been initiated.
The increased presence of US military assets in the Mediterranean would have had some deterrence, however there was already a significant presence nearby and it didn’t stop them in April so it is unlikely this pushed the pause button for Iran.
Russia and China strongly urged Iran to show restraint and with both countries vitally tied to Iran through arms and oil deals, these would certainly be put in jeopardy should there be an all-out war with Israel and the US. This would especially disadvantage Russia right now as it focuses on the war with Ukraine, and for China with considerable economic aspirations tied to the region.
Another possible reason is the religious focus among Shia Muslims participating in a pilgrimage (Arbaeen) to Iraq for which the largest number of foreign pilgrims came from Iran (Approx 3.5m). Ayatollah Khomeini sees this religious opportunity to strengthen national unity and describes it as “a great combat rehearsal”. Perhaps Iran is playing a long game and when Allies are ready to galvanise support then a strike against Israel will offer greater reward.
There are no doubt many other reasons for Irans decision to not attack at this time, but the day will come when together with Russia and a coalition of other Islamic nations, Iran will attack Israel, and on account of the Lord’s protection Israel will prevail once more. (Ezek 38-39)
Undetermined Outcomes
Other challenges Israel face at this time are the undetermined outcomes from this current war, with ongoing threats from the North and opportunistic terror attacks from the West Bank. There is also the unresolved matter of how Gaza will be governed after the war and in particular as it relates to the Gaza, Egypt border which has been the route for illegal arms transactions to Hamas.
The Philadelphi Corridor
The significant pressure on the Israeli government right now is the issue of the Philadelphi Corridor. It is the major sticking point to a hostage release agreement and ceasefire in the Israel/Hamas conflict.
On 6th May this year Israel entered the southern Gaza city of Rafah, and you will remember the furore among world leaders and the media as Israel defiantly progressed with the mission of dismantling Hamas and disrupting the arms supply they knew was coming through the network of tunnels connecting Gaza and Egypt along with the two border crossings, Rafah and Kerem Abu Salem.
Having destroyed the network of tunnels in the months since going into Rafah, Israel is now laying roads for the next phase of reestablishing the buffer zone created by the 1979 Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt. The question remains, who will assume responsibility for this border? In the past week there has been comments that the UAE may take up the position, but that seems to have been flatly rejected by the UAE.
Whatever the result, this significant border between Egypt and now Israeli controlled Gaza will remain a key part of the negotiations for the release of the hostages. A ceasefire is much less of an issue now Israel has control of Gaza and the traditional supply channels are no longer in Hamas hands.
The focus of Israel now turns to the impending war with Hezbollah. In fact reports say a ground offensive could start in days. This could be a significantly greater battle than what has been waged in Gaza with Hezbollah being larger in number and with many more advanced weapons. The question in this conflict is, what are Israels objectives?
Buffer or Oblivion?
On 1st January 2024 Israeli Politician Avigdor Liberman called for “Israel to reoccupy southern Lebanon, saying the country must “pay in territory” for damage caused by Hezbollah strikes on Israel’s northern towns.” The former defense minister says “Israel’s military must “close off” a swath of southern Lebanon and push the terror group north of the Litani river, even if it means 50 years of occupation”.
Israel occupied Southern Lebanon between 1982 and 2000, but whether this will be the case again is still uncertain. Creating a buffer zone between Hezbollah militants and the Northern cities of Israel will have limited effect if Hezbollah continues to fire more accurate longer-range missiles and drones into all parts of the country as they have been doing in recent months. The alternate is to systematically obliterate the Hezbollah terror network in the way it has with Hamas. This will ultimately have an impact on Lebanon more broadly and whose citizens largely have no desire for war with Israel.
It is more likely that Israel will take a combined approach creating a buffer zone and possibly occupying the South of Lebanon, as well as continuing air strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure along with strategic assassinations as they have been doing. All this of course is contingent upon how much support Israel has from allies and how much opposition it has from enemies.
The Potential Game changer!
Finally, Israel’s air defence may be boosted significantly in 2025 following a successful test of its light shield ( Heb: Magen Or). “Iron Beam” as it is known in English is designed to intercept rockets, UAVs, and cruise missiles at a cost of just USD$3.50 per shot using laser beams with virtually unlimited number of shots.
This significant piece of equipment will form a part of Israel’s already impressive air defence system including Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and the Arrow system which was used for the first time since Oct 7th 2023 to intercept high altitude ballistic missiles. Each system provides different layers of protection against a range of aerial threats. The Iron Beam will act as the last line of defence, intercepting threats that evade the earlier layers. This multilayered approach aims to provide comprehensive protection for Israeli cities, military bases, and strategic sites.
The Psalmist continues in Psalm 129, “May all who hate Zion be put to shame and turned backward; Let them be like grass upon the housetops, which withers before it grows up,” (129:5-6)
The past year in Israel has been filled with great anguish, yet we have also seen how God has caused Israel to prevail in turning back those who hate her and seek to destroy her. May God continue to bless Israel and may we too be a blessing for those God loves and protects according to His gracious hand.
